Climate change and agricultural resilience in Nigeria

Climate change and the negative consequences it has on agriculture is already evident in Nigeria and other Sub-Saharan African countries. Mean annual rainfall in the Sahel region is declining and becoming more erratic while the growing season gets shorter and shorter. With this in mind, the Nigerian Agricultural Resilience Framework (NARF) was launched by the Ministry of Agriculture in April 2014 to find ways and means to prevent, adapt to, and mitigate the negative effects climate change may have on agriculture in Nigeria. This activity is designed to provide information to inform such efforts. However, there is a danger of over-attributing all stressors in the agricultural sector to climate change, which could lead to inattention to other environmental or economic drivers that are negatively affecting agricultural productivity. This activity strives to provide a better understanding of what is known and not known about this topic in Nigeria. The climate change workshop conducted in year 1 with stakeholders was the first step towards doing this. Through the collaborative effort with Nigerian professors and graduate students, this activity will build on activities in year 1. The research team will quantify and simulate a system dynamics model around challenges and opportunities for agricultural production in Nigeria; bring the model back to stakeholders for validation and scenario exploration. This model will simulate production of Nigeria’s major staple food crops (cassava, rice, maize, sorghum and yams) to the year 2060, incorporating potential impacts of climate change, economic development, environmental degradation, etc.

Research Team Leader

Dr. Laura Schmitt Olabisi (MSU)

Research Team Members

Dr. Saweda Liverpool-Tasie (MSU)

Dr. Adeola Olajide (University of Ibadan)

Ms Ekerebi Epiyaigha Charity (University of Ibadan)

Mr. Awoyemi (University of Ibadan)